Welcome to Central Asia in Focus, a newsletter offering insight and analysis on events shaping the region’s political future. I’m Bruce Pannier. Beginning today, Central Asia in Focus will now be released on a monthly basis. In the January edition: Chinese-Kazakh nuclear fuel production hits its design capacity, the Chief Editor of independent Tajik newspaper Payk is sentenced to 10 years in prison, and more.

In the Region

Chinese-Kazakh Nuclear Fuel Production Hits Capacity

Kazakhstan’s state atomic energy company Kazatomprom announced on January 6 that its joint nuclear fuel project with the China General Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC) reached its design capacity at the end of 2024.

Kazatomprom said the joint venture Ulba-FA plant is now able to produce 200 metric tons of low-enriched uranium assemblies annually for use in nuclear power plants (NPPs).

The Kazatomprom statement noted 200 metric tons is a sufficient “amount of nuclear fuel…to reload six nuclear reactors.”

Operations to make nuclear fuel assemblies at the Ulba-FA plant started in November 2021. The target timeframe for hitting capacity production was three years.

All the fuel assemblies from the Ulba-FA plant are produced for use in Chinese nuclear power plants.

Kazakhstan does not have a nuclear power plant yet, but a national referendum on October 6, 2024, approved construction of the country’s first NPP.

Kazakhstan is the global leader in uranium production and the Ulba-FA is the only plant in Central Asia capable of producing nuclear fuel.

The Ulba Metallurgical Plant where the nuclear fuel assemblies are being made is a Soviet-era complex built in 1949 that was used to produce low-enriched uranium fuel pellets.

The plant has been successfully transformed into an enterprise that also produces beryllium, tantalum, and niobium, which are among the critical minerals increasingly in demand around the world. 

Why It’s Important: The nuclear fuel assemblies being produced at Ulba-FA plant are currently all going to China, but expansion of capacity could make Kazakhstan a significant producer of nuclear fuel, both for export and soon, for domestic use.

However, the joint venture with CGNPC (51% Kazatomprom, 49% CGNPC) is a reminder of how much China is currently dominating the production of so many critical materials. 

Editor of Independent Tajik Newspaper Sentenced to 10 Years in Prison

A Tajik court sentenced 62-year-old Ahmad Ibrohim, the chief editor of the independent weekly newspaper Payk, to 10 years in prison after convicting him on dubious charges at a closed trial.

Ibrohim was arrested in August 2024 and initially charged with bribery. Later, prosecutors added charges of extortion and extremism.

Payk is the only independent media outlet in Tajikistan’s southern Khatlon Province.

The Committee to Protect Journalists wrote after Ibrohim’s arrest that he had “previously complained about pressure in retaliation for [Payk’s] critical reports on local authorities.”

Since March 2024, authorities have refused to extend Payk’s operating license.

According to one of Ibrohim’s friends, the Payk chief editor was approached by a member of the state security service who offered his assistance in obtaining an operating license for a fee.

When Ibrohim paid the fee, he was arrested on charges of bribery.

Ibrohim has denied all the charges against him. He claims the extortion charge stemmed from online money transfers that were payments for subscriptions to Payk.

During his trial, Ibrohim reportedly dismissed the charges of extremism against him as “laughable.”

Investigators claimed to have found material Ibrohim wrote between 2016 and 2018 that contained signs of extremism.

Ibrohim reportedly pointed out in court that he had written articles condemning Islamic extremism and had been threatened by Tajik nationals who had joined the Islamic State terrorist organization. 

In a letter to Rustam Emomali, the son of the Tajik president, Ibrohim asked, “How can I, a journalist and author of six novels about Zoroastrians,” be an Islamic extremist? 

Why It’s Important: Ibrohim’s trial was classified as “secret” by authorities and was conducted in a jail, rather than a courtroom.

This has become a pattern in Tajikistan in the last decade.

Dozens, probably hundreds, of opposition figures, government critics, and even influential community leaders who could pose a problem for authorities were detained on suspicious charges, tried in closed proceedings, and imprisoned.

Lawyers who once would have defended these people have been intimidated, fled the country, or been imprisoned themselves.

In tens of thousands of court cases in Tajikistan between 2019-2023, there were only 28 acquittals. 

Majlis Podcast

The latest Majlis podcast looks at what the U.S. policy towards Central Asia might look like after Donald Trump takes up a second term as president.

Much has changed in Central Asia since Trump’s first term in office and there are many developments that could generate new relationships between the United States and the region.

The guests on the podcast are: 

• Bakyt Beshimov, a former member of Kyrgyzstan’s parliament and former Kyrgyz ambassador to the OSCE and to India who now teaches at Northeastern University in Boston; 
• Richard Hoagland, now at the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, who has previously served as U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and to Tajikistan, and as U.S. Charge d’affaires to Turkmenistan; and 
• Eric Rudenshiold, also now at the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, who served previously as Director for Central Asia in the National Security Council under both President Trump and President Joe Biden.  

What I’m Following

Prime Ministers of Ferghana Valley Countries Meet

The Ferghana Valley has been the scene of some of the worst tensions in Central Asia since the Central Asian states became independent in late 1991.

The prime ministers of the countries that share the Ferghana Valley – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – met on January 8 at a junction of the three countries to discuss developments and make plans for the future.

It was the first time since independence that just the prime ministers of the three countries met for talks.

While the situation has improved recently, for three decades the Ferghana Valley has been rocked by conflicts between border communities and border guards, and dozens of deaths due to poorly marked or unmarked borders.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought brief battles in April 2021 and September 2022 along disputed sections of their border.

The three prime ministers meeting to talk about the future of the Ferghana Valley and how the three countries can cooperate in developing the region is a welcome and long-overdue development.  

Uzbek President Goes to United Arab Emirates

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is visiting the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on January 13-16 in the latest sign of Uzbekistan’s growing ties with the country.

The UAE has surged in the last few years as a partner to Uzbekistan, becoming the fifth largest investor in the country.

UAE renewable energy company Masdar has invested more than $4 billion in solar and wind power stations and energy storage systems in Uzbekistan.

President Mirziyoyev is meeting with government and business leaders during his trip and will attend part of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week international conference. 

Fact of the Week

The water level in Kazakhstan’s section of the Aral Sea increased by 42 percent at the end of 2024, due in great part to heavy rains that caused flooding in many parts of Kazakhstan.

The Aral Sea today is less than 10 percent of its original size 50 years ago, and Uzbekistan’s section of the sea has almost disappeared. 

Thanks for Reading

Thanks for reading Central Asia in Focus! I appreciate you sharing it with other readers who may be interested.

Feel free to contact me on X, especially if you have any questions, comments, or just want to connect about topics concerning Central Asia.

Until next time,
Bruce

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