Welcome to Central Asia in Focus, a newsletter offering insight and analysis on events shaping the region’s political future. I’m Bruce Pannier. In this month’s edition: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan came to a final agreement on border demarcation after more than 33 years, Turkey began to receive Turkmen gas following a new deal, and more.

In the Region

Questions Remain after Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Deal

After more than 33 years, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan came to a final agreement on border demarcation and are now in the process of resettling some residents of the border area.

The two countries fought brief but destructive battles along the border in April 2021 and September 2022 that left more than 200 people dead and caused widespread devastation of homes and other facilities.

The head of Kyrgyzstan’s security committee Kamchybek Tashiev led the negotiations for his country.

On February 27, he told parliament the agreement on the remaining disputed sections of the border with Tajikistan involved Kyrgyzstan giving up 190 hectares of land and Tajikistan giving up a similar 190 hectares of land.

Kyrgyz parliamentary deputy Sultanbai Ayjigitov said on March 5 that Kyrgyzstan had given up 19,500 hectares of land, but the next day Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov called that statement a “provocation.”

Japarov pointed out that Ayjigitov was including Tajikistan’s Vorukh enclave and its 14,500 hectares in his figure, which belonged to Tajikistan even during the Soviet period.

Tashiev mentioned the village of Dostuk was part of the land exchange and its residents are being relocated to the nearby village of Chet-Bulak.

Aybek Shamenov, the governor of Kyrgyzstan’s southern Batken Province that borders Tajikistan, met with residents of Dostuk on March 6.

Some of the villagers complained about the small plots of land they were receiving in Chet-Bulak, drawing a harsh response from Shamenov, who later apologized and promised larger plots would be made available.

Tashiev told parliament that new houses needed to be built in Dostuk after the border conflicts and in recognition of this, Tajikistan gave Kyrgyzstan an additional 30 hectares of irrigated farmland.

Tashiev said new houses would be constructed in Chet-Bulak for the inhabitants of Dostuk.

Why It’s Important: What is missing is more information about the opinions of people being relocated or who are losing farm or grazing land as part of the border deal.

Tajikistan’s government tightly controls the country’s media, so it is not surprising that there is no information about the feelings of Tajik citizens about the border agreement.

Those Tajik citizens who were forced to give up the 30 hectares of farmland are probably not happy.

What little information is coming from Kyrgyzstan, where media enjoys greater freedom, indicates there is some dissatisfaction with the deal.

Many local officials in both countries have spent a decade fueling distrust of those living on the other side of the border and vowing not to concede any of their nation’s territory to the other.

Ultimately, the success of the border agreement rests with the people who live in the area and if some are unhappy with the arrangement, the problems along the Kyrgyz-Tajik frontier are likely to continue. 

Turkey Starts Receiving Turkmen Gas

Turkmenistan finally has a new buyer for its natural gas as Turkey confirmed on March 2 that supplies began arriving in the country the previous day.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkmen gas imports are “very important for Turkey’s supply security and for Turkey to increase and diversify its gas resources.”

Turkey and Turkmenistan have been in talks about gas shipments for more than two years, but in February 2025 the two sides finally signed the final documents.

Turkey is receiving Turkmen gas via a swap deal that involves Iran.

Turkmenistan ships gas to northern Iran and Iran sends a like amount of its gas to Turkey.

Turkey expects to import some 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from Turkmenistan this year, “enough gas for about 1.5 million households,” Bayraktar said.

Bayraktar also said that starting next year, Turkey will up its imports of Turkmen gas to 2 bcm annually, reducing reliance on Russian gas.

However, the Turkish energy minister explained that his country viewed the swap arrangement with Iran as a temporary solution.

“In the medium and long term, the transportation of Turkmen gas to Turkey and Europe via a pipeline across the Caspian Sea would actually be the most ideal and correct method,” Bayraktar said.

The idea of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline has been around for some 30 years but remains unrealized due to pressure from Caspian littoral states Russia and Iran.

Such a pipeline might soon be the only way to bring Turkmen gas, via Azerbaijan, to Turkey as the current U.S. administration is planning sanctions that target Iran’s energy sector, potentially complicating the Turkish-Turkmen swap arrangement. 

Why it’s Important: Turkmenistan has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world, but currently the country’s only significant customer is China, which buys 35 bcm of Turkmen gas annually.

The 2 bcm Turkmenistan will sell to Turkey is a small amount, but represents the first shipments of Turkmen gas to a new customer in a decade.

Turkmenistan has a similar swap arrangement with Iraq for larger volumes, up to 10 bcm annually, however this is also a swap arrangement involving Iran and would be subject to the same looming U.S. sanctions that threaten the Turkish-Turkmen swap deal. 

Majlis Podcast

The latest Majlis podcast looks at the increasingly dire situation in Tajikistan since the start of 2025.

Eight former government officials and opposition politicians were convicted on dubious charges of plotting to overthrow the government, and a young journalist was convicted of treason for writing about Tajik citizens’ views of China.

For the first time in 25 years, the OSCE did not send observers to Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections because the Tajik government did not provide them with accreditation.

The guests on this podcast are:

• Muhamadjon Kabirov, editor at Azda.tv, a media outlet run by exiled Tajik journalists;
• Edward Lemon, the president of the Washington-based Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs; and
• Steve Swerdlow, a rights lawyer who is currently an associate professor at the University of Southern California. 

What I’m Following

Kyrgyz, Tajik, Uzbek Presidents Set to Meet

The leaders of the three countries that share the agriculturally rich Ferghana Valley are set to meet in Khujand, Tajikistan on March 31.

Since gaining their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the border areas in the Ferghana Valley between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have been the site of repeated conflicts between communities.

This is the first time the presidents of these three Central Asian countries will meet to discuss progress in marking their borders (see the first item of this newsletter) and discuss the future of the valley.

Afghan Section of CASA-1000 Nearing Completion

Tajikistan’s Minister of Energy Daler Juma said Afghanistan has completed 70 percent of construction of CASA-1000, the project to bring electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Juma said construction of the Pakistani section of CASA-1000 should be finished in the first half of this year and all work on the project in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is already done.

CASA-1000 aims to bring electricity from hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan (300 megawatts) and Pakistan (1,000 megawatts).

Work on the project started in 2016 but was suspended when the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021.

The World Bank announced in early 2024 that work was resuming on CASA-1000.

Juma said he expects CASA-1000 to start operating by 2027. 

The AKDN is also active in Afghanistan and some 30 other countries. 

Fact of the Week

As the world marked International Women’s Day on March 8, Kyrgyzstan was the only Central Asian country to allow a march.

Thanks for Reading

Thanks for reading Central Asia in Focus! I appreciate you sharing it with other readers who may be interested.

Feel free to contact me on X, especially if you have any questions, comments, or just want to connect about topics concerning Central Asia.

Until next time,
Bruce

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